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Hyperinflation

How Hyperinflation Is Financed

There is no printing press

Seven steps, about ten minutes, a question at each. You need no economics and no preparation, only a willingness to guess before you are told.

Step 1 of 7

The question

A hyperinflation has happened about fifty times on record, and never once because a machine was switched on. A central bank creates money by buying something, and here it was buying its own government's unpaid bills.

A hyperinflation has happened about fifty times, across two centuries and four continents, and only three countries have had one in the last twenty years.

Why it matters and what it covers

A central bank creates money by buying something and paying with money it makes at the moment of the purchase. What it was buying, in Germany, in Zimbabwe and in Venezuela, was its own government's deficit -- money the state was spending that it had not raised in tax or borrowed from savers. The money a state makes this way is called seigniorage and it is a tax on whoever is holding the currency. And because the new money is created in order to be spent, it is demand in the shops the same week, which is why where it lands matters more than how much of it there is.

What this module covers

  • How often a hyperinflation has actually happened, on two separate counts
  • What a central bank does when it creates money, and what the press in the basement is for
  • A government and a central bank as two bodies, and what a refusal costs
  • The one thing the new money was buying in all three countries
  • Seigniorage: the tax that arrives with no bill attached
  • A central bank's own two documents on what its money stock did in 2008

Written for every level. Tap any underlined word for what it means, and open the boxes below for the economics behind each decision. If you already know the theory, skip both and the history reads straight through.

Step 1 · fifty episodes

How often this happens

Hyperinflation has happened about fifty times, and only three countries have had one in the last twenty years.

About fifty separate events have been recorded, across two centuries and four continents. Dozens of countries reached it before Germany, Zimbabwe or Venezuela did.

The Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas prints a table of hyperinflations in history: 30 of them, running from revolutionary France in 1789 to Zimbabwe in 2009. That table is one count and it is not the largest one.

The names the three countries that have joined the list in the last twenty years: Bulgaria in 1997, Zimbabwe in 2007 and Venezuela in 2017.

International Monetary Fund
A body funded by its member governments that lends to countries which cannot borrow enough elsewhere.

Take a guess. You are not expected to know the answers, and being wrong is what makes a number stick.

Hyperinflations have been catalogued since the 1790s. Which of these is closest to what the catalogues actually contain?

Step 2 · the press

There is no printing press

A creates money in exactly one way, and the Federal Reserve says so itself: it buys something, and pays with money that did not exist before.

The press in the basement is a printer. It replaces notes that have worn out, or runs off one larger denomination when the old ones stop being useful, and neither act adds one unit to the money in the country.

The Federal Reserve was asked, in one of its own published answers, whether it creates money in order to buy government debt. The answer is a single word: no.

The Bank of England's account of where money comes from puts most of it somewhere else again: commercial banks make it whenever they lend to somebody or buy an asset.

central bank
The bank a government sets up to issue its money and set the interest rate the rest of the banking system builds on. It deals with banks and with the state rather than with the public.

Three of these bring new money into existence. Which one does not?

Step 3 · two bodies

Two bodies, and one of them can say no

The Economics Observatory draws the two bodies apart: a central bank buys what it buys for its own reasons, and not in order to fund a government.

The government spends and taxes; the central bank issues the money and decides what it buys. A government wanting to spend more than it raised has to persuade savers to lend it the difference, or its own central bank to create it. Either of those two is allowed to say no.

There are three ways a state pays for what it spends: tax, borrowing it means to pay back, and money its central bank creates for it. Only the third has no lender who has to be talked round.

Three things can happen to a government that is refused, and it pays for all three: a tax goes up, a programme is cut, or savers are offered terms good enough to be taken. Each of those three has voters who object, and creating the money walks past every one of them.

A government wants to spend more than it has raised. In the ordinary case, what has to happen before its central bank creates the money?

Step 4 of 7
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Where every figure came from

[1] The longest catalogue of hyperinflations, and its count: Steve Hanke and Nicholas Krus, World Hyperinflation Table, published as Cato Institute Working Paper 8.
[2] A second and independent catalogue, and what a central bank says it is doing when it buys government debt: Federal Reserve: Bank of Dallas, Globalization and Monetary Policy Institute 2011 Annual Report; and the Board of Governors' Current FAQs.
[3] How many countries have had one recently, and the link between the deficit, seigniorage and the money stock: International Monetary Fund, Working Paper 18/266, The Modern Hyperinflation Cycle: Some New Empirical Regularities.
[4] What a hyperinflation is, in one sentence, from a central bankers' body: Bank for International Settlements, Annual Economic Report 2022, chapter II, Inflation: a look under the hood.
[5] Where new money comes from in an ordinary economy, and what the word for a state's profit on issuing it means: Bank of England, Quarterly Bulletin 2014 Q1, Money creation in the modern economy; and Ben Broadbent, Government debt and inflation, 2 September 2020.
[6] The three ways a government can pay for what it spends: Economics Observatory, 'Monetary financing': is it happening and what are the dangers?, 27 May 2020.
[7] What the money stock did, in the country's own central bank's own words, twice: Reserve Bank of Zimbabwe, 2008 Annual Report; and the January 2009 Monetary Policy Statement.

Country data from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0) and the UNDP Human Development Report (CC BY 3.0 IGO)
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