The argument this series makes, in 10 steps. It is the same spine every module is built on, and no module states more of it than its own share.
On 23 March 2020 the Prime Minister told people across the UK they must stay at home, and non-essential shops closed; restaurants and bars had already been closed.
Monthly output in April 2020 was about a quarter below its February level.
On 20 March 2020 the Chancellor announced that the government would pay 80 per cent of the wages of furloughed staff, up to GBP2,500 a month.
Furlough peaked at 8.9 million jobs on 8 May 2020 and supported 11.7 million jobs over its life, closing on 30 September 2021.
England's second national lockdown ran from 5 November to 2 December 2020 and its third became law on 6 January 2021; output dipped in both, GDP was about 10 per cent lower in 2020, and output passed its February 2020 level in September 2021.
Closures and people's own caution both cut spending, the ONS says, and services relying on face-to-face contact fell furthest.
The UK fell further than most rich economies, though not Spain; the OBR said this was likely due to the virus, longer stricter restrictions and much social consumption, with measurement explaining part but not all of the gap; the ONS said measurement may matter.
Unemployment rose far less than output fell, which the OBR credits to furlough. Its November 2020 forecast of 7.5 per cent assumed support ended in spring 2021; after the extension to September it cut the peak to 6.5 per cent, partly for that reason.
On the OBR's July 2021 account new spending, not lost receipts, drove 2020-21 borrowing to 15.6 per cent of GDP, the largest deficit since 1944-45 in its words; separately, it estimated in March 2021 that support announced by then would cost GBP344 billion in total.
The OBR assumed, from November 2020 and still in July 2021, lasting scarring of about 3 per cent of potential output, from lower investment, less labour supplied and lower productivity.