Economic history · Thatcher's Economic Policy
Three steps, about four minutes, a question at each. You need no economics and no preparation, only a willingness to guess before you are told.
Britain's own decade has been followed from the fight against rising prices through to the arguments about whether it worked. What other countries were doing at the same time has not been looked at.
Twelve modules of this series have watched Britain from the inside. The last one steps outside.
Inflation fell across the whole rich world in the early 1980s. The American central bank raised its interest rates far above other countries'. Other countries had to raise their own interest rates, or watch their money leave for America. France ran the opposite experiment, elected in 1981 on more spending and state ownership, and reversed it within two years.
Britain's own difference had two parts. Inflation fell further than in most countries, and unemployment stayed above 10 per cent from 1982 to 1987. Three steps, and the series closes on the question the evidence leaves open: how much Britain chose, and how much would have happened anyway.
What this module covers
Written for every level. Tap any underlined word for what it means, and open the boxes below for the economics behind each decision. If you already know the theory, skip both and the history reads straight through.
Step 1 of 3
When prices stop rising everywhere at once, it is worth asking whether any one government did it.
The whole rich world's fell in the early 1980s, not in Britain alone.
The fall started in America. The Federal Reserve, America's , raised its to slow American spending. Other countries had to raise their own interest rates, or watch their money leave for America.
Money moves to wherever it earns the most interest. When America raised its interest rates far above other countries', money flowed towards America. Other countries had to raise their own interest rates or watch their money leave. Higher interest rates in many countries at once meant less borrowing and spending in all of them. Less spending slowed price rises everywhere, and that is why the whole rich world's inflation fell in the same few years.
The rich world's economies were pulled into together in the early 1980s, and their price rises slowed together.
Take a guess. You are not expected to know the answers, and being wrong is what makes a number stick.
Britain's interest rate reached 17 per cent. How high did the American central bank push its interest rate in 1980 and 1981?
For scale. Britain's own interest rate peaked at 17 per cent in 1979, below the American interest rate.
France elected a government in 1981 that promised the opposite of Britain's policy of high interest rates and less government spending. It would spend more, take companies into state ownership, and protect jobs.
The promise was tested against the same world: high American interest rates, and price rises slowing everywhere.
The new government did spend more. Much of the money went on goods from abroad, so it left France. Because money was leaving, France's fell.
France set out in 1981 to spend more instead of cutting. How long did that policy last?
For scale. France reversed its policy within one elected term, under the same government that had promised the opposite.
Britain fought rising prices the same way as the other rich countries: with high interest rates. The results were different in two ways: inflation fell further than in most countries, and stayed higher for longer.
The comparison is with the other rich economies, from 1979 to 1990, and not with Britain's own past.
British unemployment went above 10 per cent in 1982, on the government's official count.
Britain's prices slowed more than most, and its unemployment stayed above 10 per cent for years. The same method gave a different answer here.
Unemployment went above 10 per cent in 1982. When did it come back under?
For scale. By 1990 inflation was back near 10 per cent, close to its level when the decade began.
That was module 13 of 13, the last in Thatcher's Economic Policy
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America's interest rates
above 20% in 1980 and 1981France's extra spending
1981 to 1983, then reversedBritain's difference
inflation fell further than most; unemployment above 10% from 1982 to 1987You met six terms in this module
, , , , ,
Price rises slowed everywhere at once, and Britain's price rises slowed more than most countries'. British unemployment stayed above 10 per cent for years.
[1] The whole rich world's inflation: National Institute Economic Review, labour productivity and comparative series for the OECD economies, 1979 to 1990. The comparative OECD series: inflation fell across the rich world between 1979 and 1986, with the United States pushing its interest rates above 20% in 1980 and 1981; French inflation and the franc under the 1981-83 experiment.
[2] The world's tightening, and France's reversal: Nicholas Crafts, The economic legacy of Mrs Thatcher, CEPR. The international context of the early-1980s fall in inflation, and the French experiment of 1981 to 1983: elected on more spending and state ownership, reversed within two years.
[3] British unemployment, month by month: ONS, unemployment rate, series MGSX. The unemployment rate stood above 10% from 1982 to 1987.
[4] Britain against its peers: Centre for Economic Performance, LSE, CP414, UK relative performance. The United Kingdom against comparable economies, 1979 to 1990: inflation fell further than in most, and unemployment stayed higher for longer.
Country data from the World Bank (CC BY 4.0) and the UNDP Human Development Report (CC BY 3.0 IGO)
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